12/16/2007 - The USD has broken higher; contain your enthusiasm |
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* The USD has broken higher; contain your enthusiasm
* Eurozone growth outlook downgraded
* UK housing market continuing to tank
* Challenging trading conditions ahead into year-end
The USD staged a strong rally late in the week, largely on the back of higher PPI and CPI readings and a stronger than expected Nov. retail sales report. At the same time, the outlooks for other major economies continued to deteriorate, with Germany's IFO economic research institute lowering its 2008 German GDP forecast from 2.2% to 1.8% (2009 only 1.5%), Japan's Tankan survey pointing to weaker corporate sentiment ahead, and the UK's RICS housing price balance (price gains minus price declines) plunging to its lowest level since June 2005, while house price expectations fell to 1998 levels. Along the way, the USD broke several major technical levels, most notably 1.4520 in EUR/USD, suggesting this move is for real, but at the same time the overall outlook for the USD remains highly uncertain. Full text »
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