A Case of Excessive Expectations |
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Are currency traders as inept at predicting Federal Reserve policy as they seem? Judging from the reaction in the euro dollar to the FOMC statement on Wednesday their forecasting skills are unremarkable. In the 45 minutes after the 2:15 pm status quo rate announcement, the dollar lost almost a figure and a half against the euro. Anticipation of a stronger Fed stance on inflation and perhaps on the dollar seemed to have gotten the market far ahead of where the Fed was likely to go. Was there
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