Forex Info Center

Eurozone: a few thoughts on the January IP report

UniCredit Group — Fri, 12 Mar 2010 17:50:37 +0000

EMU – IP (Jan): 1.7% UniCredit: 1.0% ------ Consensus: 0.7% ----- Last: 0.6% Eurozone IP in January was stronger than expected, though the 1.7% mom increase is not overly surprising after solid readings in France and Italy – as a matter of fact, a weighted average of national data suggested a 1.5% outcome for the eurozone today. In yearly terms, production was back in positive territory (+1.4%) for the first time since April 2008. On a 3M/3M basis, the growth rate is a strong 2.6%. The main

Canadian employment: a brighter picture than at first glance

National Bank of Canada — Fri, 12 Mar 2010 17:50:33 +0000

Latest (monthly change): +20.9k (Actual); +15.5k (expected) Previous: +43.0k FACTS: Total employment rose 20.9K in February, following a robust gain of 43.0K in January. Gains were concentrated in full-time employment (+60.2K) while part-time jobs fell by 39.3K. The public sector added 45.6K jobs while a loss of 7.5K was observed in the private sector and a decrease of 17.2K for the self-employed. The goods-producing sector amassed 17.8K positions with the largest increase coming from

US: Retail Sales Began Year With Gains

Wachovia — Fri, 12 Mar 2010 17:50:32 +0000

Sales at the nation’s retailers climbed 0.5 percent in January with solid gains across most retail categories. “Core” sales (ex-gas, building materials and autos) climbed 0.8 percent as 2010 started on an up note. Sales Higher Across Most Segments Year-over-year comparisons have become easier and sales were up nearly 5 percent over last January. While we are not expecting the consumer to come roaring back in the near-term, improvements have been quicker than expected considering the

US: Retail Sales Showed Solid Gains in February

Wachovia — Fri, 12 Mar 2010 17:50:31 +0000

Sales at the nation’s retailers climbed 0.3 percent in February and after stripping out automotive dealers and gasoline stations, gains were even better – up 0.9 percent. Sales Gains Were Broad Based Sales gains were broad based as only two categories (motor vehicles and health & personal care) showed declines. Strong gains were seen at electronics stores as well as food & beverage retailers. Our preferred measure of “core” sales, which removes gasoline, building materials and autos

Chart of the Day – USD/CAD

FX Solutions — Fri, 12 Mar 2010 16:32:50 +0000

(Chart courtesy of FX Solutions' FX AccuCharts. Price on 1st pane, Slow Stochastics on 2nd pane; horizontal support/resistance levels in yellow; uptrend lines in green; downtrend lines in red; chart patterns in white; 50-period simple moving average in light blue.) 3/12/2010 – USD/CAD – Bearish price action on USD/CAD, a daily chart of which is shown, has finally made a tentative breakdown below the key 1.0200 support level after respecting this level several times this week. Friday’s

Friday Rant.

Black Swan Capital — Fri, 12 Mar 2010 16:29:04 +0000

Key News LONDON, March 12 (Reuters) - World oil demand this year will be slightly higher than previously expected, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Friday, because of growth in developing countries. The agency lifted its absolute demand estimates for 2009 and 2010 by 70,000 barrels per day (bpd) from its estimate in February. It now expects world demand to average 86.57 million bpd this year. TORONTO, March 12 (Reuters) - Canada's unemployment rate fell to 8.2 percent in February

US Jobless Claims Decline 6K, Is Positive Job Growth on the Horizon?

CMS Forex — Fri, 12 Mar 2010 16:13:39 +0000

Jobless Claims Decline by 6K, Job Growth on the Horizon? The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits declined by 6K to 462K for the week ending March 6th. It was the second weekly drop in a row and can be a sign that the climb in weekly claims seen the past two months may be arresting. The rise in January and February can be attributed to some temporary factors, including very strong winter weather in the country. For the economy to post positive job growth jobless claims have to

Trade Deficit Narrows in Jan as Imports and Exports Both Drop

CMS Forex — Fri, 12 Mar 2010 16:13:39 +0000

The US trade deficit narrowed to $37.29B in January from a downwardly revised $39.9B shortfall in December. Expectations had been for a trade gap of $40.8 billion. Exports decreased 0.3%, but imports fell a larger 1.7%. Imports fell to $180B from $183.1B in December as the US imported 245 million barrels of oil, the fewest since February 1999. The decrease in volume swamped what was an increase in oil prices during that time. Also, purchases of foreign-made automobiles and parts dropped by

GBP/USD: correction underway

FXstreet.com Indepent Analyst — Fri, 12 Mar 2010 15:43:51 +0000

Finally, risk appetite gave up earlier strength and majors and pair is correcting to the downside. Capped above 1.5120 support area, under that level a probable retest of 1.5080/90 seems likely as 4 hours charts show indicators also losing strength. Only above today’s high of 1.5176, pair could regain bullish momentum and approach to key 1.5230 resistance area.

February US Non-Farm Payrolls shrank a less-than-feared 36K

Mizuho Corporate Bank — Fri, 12 Mar 2010 15:35:12 +0000

Overview Improbably tiny ranges for many instruments this week, especially stock indices where for example the Dow Jones Industrial Average held within just 130 points. This effect was seen across the board and while there is nothing about this in textbooks candle theory hints that this is probably due to low volume and is symptomatic of a market that has lost its way and/or is gathering energy for the next move. Again a handful of indices posted new highs for this year, FTSE100, Helsinki,

February US Non-Farm Payrolls shrank a less-than-feared 36K

Mizuho Corporate Bank — Fri, 12 Mar 2010 15:35:12 +0000

Retail Sales rise in February to support economic outlook of the United States

ecPulse.com — Fri, 12 Mar 2010 15:27:39 +0000

The world’s leading economy recovery road seems underway as reported in recent fundamentals whereas the country’s Retail Sales rose beyond expectations throughout the month of February despite the fact that demand is still weak due to a lot of factors that contribute of narrowing demand and trimming off spending. The U.S economy released its Retail Sales Report for the month of February coming in better than markets projections of -0.2% to reach 0.3% and higher than the previous 0.5% which got

Technical Summary for Majors

Windsor Brokers Ltd — Fri, 12 Mar 2010 15:16:58 +0000

EUR/USD Fresh strength has emerged from 1.3620 support, rallying sharply through 1.3735/87 resistance zone, to test 1.3798 range ceiling, ahead of corrective pullback. This now confirms near-term corrective base, for fresh push towards 1.3838, possibly 1.3886 on a break. Res: 1.3798, 1.3838, 1.3900, 1.3914 Sup: 1.3735, 1.3705, 1.3685, 1.3654 GBP/USD Continues to trend higher after finding support at 1.4871 higher low, with the latest strong rally, reaching 1.5171, ahead of key 1.5194, 08 Mar

Appetite for CEE continues

Danske Bank A/S — Fri, 12 Mar 2010 15:14:59 +0000

Market movers ahead: Polish numbers on the table next week Some interesting Polish numbers dominate next week’s calendar. On Monday we will receive data on Polish inflation in February. It is both our and consensus expectation that Polish inflation has dropped significantly in February – we expect it to come out at 3.2% y/y in February vs 3.6% y/y in January. Polish industrial production data is being released on Wednesday. We expect industrial production growth to have picked up a bit in

Global recovery on track

Danske Bank A/S — Fri, 12 Mar 2010 15:11:49 +0000

Market Movers ahead In the US, the key event of the coming week is the FOMC meeting. We do not expect the Fed to change its rhetoric much. Importantly, the ‘extended period’ phrase will probably be removed, sending a clear signal of the ZIRP remaining in place for some time yet. In the eurozone, attention will focus on the German ZEW indicator. Over the past couple of months, the ZEW has trended down, underlining the current risk of a double-dip in the eurozone economies. However, we feel

Stocks Poised to Continue Rally; Demand for Risk Weakens Dollar

ForexHound.com — Fri, 12 Mar 2010 14:52:02 +0000

Retail Sales just came out bullish. Equity markets are soaring. Bonds are breaking. The Dollar is plunging. The market reads this report as good. The key will be to be able to separate the report from the trade. The question is will U.S. investors chase equity market higher or wait for a pullback? Overall, however, it looks like a strong report. U.S. equity markets are trading better overnight ahead of this morning’s Retail Sales Report. Demand for higher risk assets, the weaker Dollar

U.S. Dollar weakens after Euro Breaks Technical Level

ForexHound.com — Fri, 12 Mar 2010 14:46:30 +0000

The U.S. Dollar is trading lower overnight against all major currencies. Investor demand for higher risk assets has been the driving force along with short-covering. Economic releases have played a limited role in this week’s Dollar movement. However, this may change today following the release of the U.S. Retail Sales Report and Consumer Sentiment. The EUR USD is trading sharply higher after piercing the recent swing top at 1.3735. This reaffirmed the main trend which turned up last

Euro and pound remain vigorous

ecPulse.com — Fri, 12 Mar 2010 14:20:12 +0000

The U.S. economy released its retail sales showing that they surpassed estimates, yet the dollar is declining as a result of anticipations that the Federal Reserve Bank will leave interest rates near zero throughout most of this year, therefore discouraging investors to buy the dollar. The Dollar Index, which measures strength of the dollar versus six major currencies, is currently traded at 79.90 while recording a high of 80.32 and a low of 79.68. There are anticipations in the markets

London Gold Market Report

BullionVault.com — Fri, 12 Mar 2010 14:18:37 +0000

Gold Up, Dollar Down as Paulson & George "Bubble" Soros Further Extend Exposure THE PRICE OF GOLD rose versus a falling US Dollar Friday morning in London, recovering one-third of the week's earlier 3% drop as world stock markets crept towards new multi-month highs. Crude oil also rose, pushing above $82 per barrel after the International Energy Agency called January's jump in China's energy demand – up by 28% – "astonishing". US Treasury bonds meantime fell with the Dollar, nudging

Canada: Trade balance remains in surplus in January

National Bank of Canada — Fri, 12 Mar 2010 14:09:14 +0000

Trade balance remains in surplus in January Latest: +$0.8B (Actual) +$0.4B (Expected) Previous: +$0.1B (revised up from -$0.2B) FACTS: The Canadian trade balance registered a $0.8B surplus in January, after two $0.01 surpluses in December and November (small deficits initially reported - top chart). In January, exports grew $0.153B or 0.5%. Advances in exports of industrial goods and materials (+$0.3B), consumer goods (+$0.1B) and agricultural and fishing products (+$0.1) were partly offset by