The ECB’s hike experiment |
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Rate hike. When ECB Council members meet next Thursday in Frankfurt, anything but a refi rate hike by 25 bp to 4.25% would be a major surprise – stirring up markets as was already the case after Trichet's press conference in early June (pages 4-5). One-off measure. But we expect that this is not the beginning of a rate hike cycle, although inflation will be flirting with the 4% level in the coming weeks. In fact, the economic slowdown in the eurozone will be more pronounced than is widely
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